Iranian Presidential Election: A Year After
June 12, 2010, the anniversary of Iranian presidential elections, passed in complete silence, contrary to last year events, when violent clashes with security forces broke out after the election results became known. Those clashes were documented in online social networks, which have become the main tool for documenting the events.
It seems that this time, the election anniversary did not stir any reaction on the streets of Iran; no mention either in the local or in the international media was to be found. Checking on CNN revealed that I was not wrong – the 12th of June is the anniversary of Iran’s presidential elections.
The riots that broke out immediately after it had transpired that the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, won another term, expressed the desire for change. The move was led by the reformists in Iran. However, as days passed by, clashes with security forces decreased, and during the past year confrontations and demonstrations were limited to only a few dates commemorated in the local Iranian calendar.
As a consequence of past events, especially those that occurred immediately following the elections, events which provided an unequivocal proof for the power of social networks, the Iranian regime exerted measures to restrict Internet users and limit online activity close to various dates of mention during the past year. In addition, the government applied harsh measures throughout the whole year, particularly during those dates, against the reformist activists, while also executing many of those who had participated in those demonstrations.
In July 2009, 40 days have passed since the demonstrations in which many protesters were killed, including Neda Soltan, the symbol of the struggle. As before, thousands took to the streets, but only for a short while. Those acts of protest did not continue.
In February 2010, there were demonstrations to mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution, but they also subsided soon.
All kept following that path, until even the election anniversary, which was apparently supposed to be a focal point for the opposition to organize demonstrations and confrontations with the authorities, remained without any events of note.
The reason is the government’s absolute control over the Iranian security forces and its ability, at least for now, to suppress violent demonstrations and control the level of the protest.
On the other hand, it appears that the reformist camp failed to recruit to its ranks broad sectors of the population beyond those educated young people who filled the streets of the capital and the internet with their reports over the events in the streets.
Therefore, the government does not feel its legitimacy is being undermined, neither from within Iran nor from the outside. There is no broad popular engagement against the government, and the latter does not feel the earth shaking under its feet.
As long as this situation persists, we shall not see any continuation of those demonstrations, nor will they be leveraged into government change in Iran.
